Autor: CCAA

EUROCONTROL Seven-year forecast

In the base forecast scenario, an average growth of 2.2% per annum is predicted for Europe between 2015 and 2022. In this ‘most-likely’ scenario there are approximately 11.5 million flights in 2022, 16% more than in 2015.

EUROCONTROL, as Network Manager, has published its latest seven year forecast for flights over Europe. The 1.5% growth that was seen in 2015 is expected to strengthen in 2016 and to reach a rate of above 2% (in the ECAC area). Amongst the factors contributing to this is an expected increase in the demand in Iberia and Greece, leading to strong growth rates for these countries during Summer.

These countries are preferred by air travellers, still staying away from the North African destinations. The low-cost sector is expected to continue to be dynamic, with new aircraft for some operators. The traffic patterns in the Eastern part of Europe are still subject to changes in relation to the tensions in Ukraine and Russian Federation.

In the base forecast scenario, an average growth of 2.2% per annum is predicted for Europe between 2015 and 2022. In this ‘most-likely’ scenario there are approximately 11.5 million flights in 2022, 16% more than in 2015. In 2017, the expected number of flights (10.4 million) would exceed the previous record high of 10.2 million flights recorded in 2008.

However; the average annual growth rate remains two percentage points below historic trends prior to the financial crisis. Air traffic, in the medium term, will be largely driven by the underlying gross domestic product performance; with the other drivers of growth having a dwindling effect.

The full forecast examines in detail the different factors affecting the future growth in traffic, as well as setting out high and low scenarios in addition to the base scenario.

For more details on European air traffic previsions for 2016-2022, download the Seven-Year Forecast of IFR movements and Service Units report. The detailed forecast figures for individual States are also available through the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (SID).